Which party will win the 2024 UK General Election?
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Plus
31
13k
Jul 4
98%
Labour
1.7%
Conservative
0.3%
Other
0.2%
Liberal Democrat

Win = take enough constituency seats to command a majority in the Houses of Parliament, for a member of the party to take the role of Prime Minister, to have their request to form a government accepted by the monarch.

Next UK General Election = the first general election following 12th December 2019, expected 2024 but may occur any time before February 2025. Close date will be amended to reflect close of polls on election day when the date is announced.

If the election results in a coalition government then the winning party for the purpose of this question will be the party of the Prime Minister chosen following the election. If the election results in a hung parliament unable to form a government, leading to another General Election, then this market will resolve N/A.

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This market is now part of this dashboard: UK General Election.

bought Ṁ50 Labour NO

The election is on for July 4th! Subsidy added here, and to others on the dashboard.

We've also got new markets on the number of seats:

This market is now part of this dashboard: UK General Election.

These rules could be 70% shorter. Just call it a plurality of seats.

Sorry if this is a duplicate, but I couldn’t find a straightforward “who will win” question with multiple choice answers.

@Noit How about: "Party of Prime Minister after next election - N/A if hung parliament" or "Most seats after next election"?

@ZicoVerona Sorry, I might be being dense here but I’m not sure what you’re asking?

@Noit I think your description is fairly clear but the title 'will win' could be misunderstood as 'party with most seats'. But it's not inconceivable that one party has the most seats but not more than 50% so the other parties could form a coalition and post the prime minister.

So if you changed the title to something like "Party of Prime Minister after next election - N/A if hung parliament" you would avoid misunderstandings like that.

Some people don't read descriptions ;)

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