Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
25
139
470
2026
42%
chance

This market resolves YES if, before 1st Jan 2027, there is a volcanic explosion of 5 or larger on the Volcanic Explosivity Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index anywhere on Earth.

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What is the base rate for this?

predicts NO

@mariopasquato Wikipedia has an incomplete list, over the last century there’s been one-ish per decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_Holocene_volcanic_eruptions

boughtṀ50YES

@palcu Heard of something rumbling?