Will the sun explode before 2025?
40
225
1k
2025
0.9%
chance

This market will resolve YES (if manifold somehow survives) in the case that the sun explodes before market close at the end of 2024, otherwise it will resolve NO at that time.

This market is an experiment in measuring Manifold's current 2025 risk-free rate, which I suspect has changed recently.

Update in light of comments: I am referring to the sun exploding in the colloquial sense, not to any other technical sense of the word, where there is a conflict. If the sun is still around in basically the same form it is now at market close, this market will resolve NO.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

I'm surprised that people are willing to push this so low. It'll be interesting to see if people hold on to their positions over time.

@Indigo me too, but I guess it makes sense in hindsight. Most of the active userbase haven't yet experienced the downside of making bets near 0 or 100% that aren't going to resolve very soon. Once they have experienced it a few times, I'm sure their behaviour will change.

predicts NO

@chrisjbillington I have more of an issue with finding worthwhile markets to bet on than liquidity constraints. Manifold needs more market makers and more active markets!

And liquidity is going to be even less of an issue going forwards since they changed the loan to 4%.

@Tripping (or anyone really) how do you find markets worth betting on? I'm having some trouble too. I feel like you have to go on trending, otherwise there isn't much activity.

I've started filtering out self resolving / referring markets, and that helped a little bit for me.

@Indigo I like going on Questions, sorting by closing soon and scrolling. If you like particular topics, you can also check out the groups for them and do the same thing for the questions in the group.

predicts NO

@Indigo No idea. I think the issue is more that there aren't enough people on the site making interesting markets in the first place, rather than it being a case of those markets existing and you simply aren't able to find them.

@Tripping I'm gonna be the change and start making a bunch of melee markets. Do you think we could get melee players on board with taking part? It's kinda like sports betting, people like sports betting

https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/who-will-win-melee-singles-at-battl

predicts NO

@Tumbles I think it would be cool if someone could convince the community to care

I'm rooting for you @MaybeNotDepends. The sun is definitely exploding.

predicts YES

This might be a great area. And I might be having too much fun. But you shouldn't create a market about something you don't understand and ignore science.

I think things can explode without being totally destroyed. Typically at least pieces are left and with small explosions a majority of the thing that exploded can be left intact.

@MaybeNotDepends This seems really disingenuous to me to accuse a market creator of "ignoring science" when really they are just going by the common sense meaning of the words and assuming someone wouldn't be this determined to argue for a silly interpretation. The creator clearly knows about solar flares and the way that a star prevents itself from collapsing, but neither of those are considered to be the Sun exploding by anyone except you.

predicts YES

"burst or shatter violently and noisily as a result of rapid combustion, excessive internal pressure, or other process."
The sun bursts

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@MaybeNotDepends Maybe you mean there are explosions on the sun all the time

predicts YES

@Odoacre Where do the explosions come from? The sun.

@MaybeNotDepends The question asks whether the Sun will explode, not whether it will cause an explosion. The fact that the explosions come from the Sun is irrelevant.

predicts YES

I'm not trolling. The sun regularly explodes. It is only rarely not exploding (see the Maunder minimum). And we're in a period of increasing solar flares. (I'm a radio enthusiast).

@MaybeNotDepends To clarify, that that's not what I mean by this market, and I apologise if you made bets to that effect. I suggest you sell.

As with all my markets I will resolve them in the spirit they are intended rather than the letter the resolution criteria, where there is a conflict.

Apologies for the confusion. I will update the resolution criteria when I'm back at a computer.

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington My recommendation for resolving markets is to follow the rules and only use the intention when the rules are unclear. That said, you can do what you want! (and I only lost a marginal amount of fake money, lol)

@MaybeNotDepends There are different possible interpretations of what the sun exploding means and it has been pretty clear from the beginning which is the one Chris intended to be used for the market. Making multiple comments about how the sun is definitely exploding under your interpretation of exploding doesn't really change anything.

@MaybeNotDepends

My recommendation for resolving markets is to follow the rules and only use the intention when the rules are unclear.

This recommendation is fine, but there's no way you can possibly argue that it should lead to a YES resolution. At best, you could argue that the rules were unclear before the creator clarified what would count as an explosion. There's no way you could argue that the rules were clear before and that a solar flares or the Sun holding itself up with pressure from nuclear fusion would count.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Resolve yes.

The sun explodes regularly

@MaybeNotDepends Solar flares. See spaceweather.com We had a X class flare a couple days ago.