Terms
"Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count.
"In" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone).
Market is intended to be settled within 48 hours of the end of the month or as soon as I'm convinced that an eruption has occurred.
"Erupt" shall primarily be determined by the USGS Kilauea page.
Backup data sources will strongly prefer official announcements from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
Duration, location, and size of an eruption are irrelevant. Any declared eruption of Kilauea in the time period will treated as a "Yes" answer.
Unlikely, but possible, ambiguities
When an eruption occurred: most eruptions of Kilauea can be dated to within a few seconds thanks to multiple cameras operated by HVO. For eruptions in unexpected locations, imagery from geostationary satellites can usually date an eruption to within a few minutes (example from nearby Mauna Loa in 2022). If an eruption occurs near the end of the month (or the beginning of next month), I'll do my best to determine its precise start time. If I think there's a 1% or higher chance that it began in this market's month, I'll resolve as "Yes".
Type of eruption: Kilauea continuously produces >100 tonnes/day of SO2 outgassing, but the HVO does not normally call this an eruption. If the volume increases, they may declare that an eruption, in which case this market will settle "Yes". Otherwise, this market will not count gas release by itself as an eruption.
Other ambiguities: for other ambiguities, I will post a detailed comment and provide at least 24 hours for debate before settling the market to the best of my ability. I will strongly prefer settling as "Yes" or "No".
Disclosure: I will bet in this market, although I will cease if I think the situation has become ambiguous.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,592 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,203 | |
| 3 | Ṁ123 | |
| 4 | Ṁ69 | |
| 5 | Ṁ43 |
HVO is reporting elevated unrest in the final hours of this market. (Their search is broke on my mobile, so I can't provide a permalink. Edit: permalink: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/notice/DOI-USGS-HVO-2024-02-01T03:44:28+00:00 )
I've created a market for eruption in next month with an extra condition that it will resolve NA if this market resolves YES. https://manifold.markets/harding/will-kilauea-erupt-in-february-2024?r=aGFyZGluZw
Latest from USGS HVO is that there's a mild increase in seismic activity since Saturday but no current evidence of an immanent eruption. Unless an eruption happens in the next 15 39 hours, I'll resolve this as NO about 2448 hours from now.
Thanks for betting everyone! I live near Kilauea and having information about its eruptive potential collapsed into a single probability score is very useful to me.
Edit: forgot there are 31 days in January. Updated timeline accordingly.
IPython notebook that calculates the average number days between eruptions over the past century at 489 (mean) and 264 (median): https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1HCoRIBVD73E3lHNy_YmwG7V0dj0BsorW?usp=sharing
(Obviously, no warranty on the data or the calculations. I think they're correct, but everything is there for you to verify yourslef, so if you lose mana depending on those stats, that's on you.)