At market creation, the UK polls are all over the place. There are five parties polling above 10% nationally, and that's discounting strong performances of the regional parties. This is a situation where First Past the Post does not shine. So I ask you to forecast: will I consider the end result of the next UK general election a shitshow with FPTP playing a primary role in that shitshow?
This will resolve to a vibes-based percentage so below is a non-exhaustive list of things I will be considering. I will resolve to 0%/20%/40%/60%/80%/100% to avoid any tedious debate about whether it's 87% or 93% or whatever.
Strong signals I'll consider it a FPTP shitshow:
High Gallagher Index (20 or higher would be a very strong signal)
At- or near-record low national voteshare for the winning party
High number of seats won on extremely low voteshares
Any kind of hung parliament
Strong signals I'll consider it NOT a FPTP shitshow:
A strong majority for the winning party
this is the primary reason I don't consider 2024 a FPTP shitshow - despite high Gallagher index and low voteshare for Labour, the end result was a clear majority of MPs returned and thus ability to govern, i.e. not a shitshow (for FPTP reasons, at least).
Low Gallagher Index (15 or lower)
Winning party taking 40% + of the national vote
The main opposition party (post-election) being the clear second place with a significant lead over third-place parties.
If FPTP is not the voting system for the next UK General Election then this will resolve NO.
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hung parliament clarification: A hung parliament can still be considered a FPTP shitshow even if a hung parliament would have occurred under other voting systems. However, the Gallagher Index will be considered:
Low Gallagher Index with hung parliament may indicate it's a "what voters want" issue rather than a FPTP issue (less likely to be considered a shitshow)
If hung parliament results from two very similar parties clearly splitting their vote share, this pushes more towards "is a shitshow"
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the UK moves to a FPTP derivative system (such as a majority bonus system), it will be treated as equivalent to the current FPTP system for resolution purposes.
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@nikki I've never heard of that voting system before. Seems unlikely! But if we move to a FPTP derivative system then I will probably treat it as equivalent to the current system.
@a_l_e_x good point, and yes. If you have e.g. a hung parliament but a low gallagher index then that may indicate it's a "what voters want" issue rather than a FPTP issue.
A potential counter-point would be that if there's a hung parliament because two very similar parties have very clearly split their vote share, that might push more towards "is a shitshow"..
As a point of note that probably doesn't belong in the market description: I am a FPTP hater and do want to see alternative voting systems, BUT that does not mean that I by default consider any FPTP result to be a shitshow. Clearly unfair and unrepresentative? Yes. But I cannot argue that a result I disagree with is de facto a shitshow if it returns a strong and stable majority for a government of whatever colour.
@Noit strong and stable! Strong and stable!
Sorry, got haunted by the ghost of Theresa May for a minute there.
Great market btw