This refers to the general election for the house of commons (not local elections of Scottish/Welsh/Northern Irish)
An ammended version of FPTP which includes ranked choice will resolve to Yes. Or any other amendments that significantly change the way that people vote and how well parties do - I will decide this so slightly ambiguous.
Any other systems will resolve to Yes eg Proportional representation (whether that's STV of some other system)
If the system remains in place as it currently is by the 1st of Jan 2030 then this resolves to No
A bill to change the voting systems needs to have passed before the date of Jan 1st 2030, so anything that is being debated will not be considered. However, there does not need to be an election with the system by 2030.
Note: a change in the democratic structure eg abolishing the monarchy or the house of lords will resolve to No, even if an elected house of lords is elected by a non FPTP system
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Starmer's anti electoral reform Labour party have won a massive landslide with only ~35% of the vote. This is the most unfair election in terms of vote share won by a majority party in British electoral history.
This will put more pressure on other parties include potentially the Tories to advocate for reform. Plus with 71 MPs the Lib Dems will have more sway and Reform will be a new voice in parliament calling for changes.
On the other hand why change the system that has given you such a large majority.
The more I think about it the less likely I think this is. It's not going to happen unless the Labour party puts it in their manifesto, and I don't think they'll do that. Starmer is sticking with his boring/cautious/safe vibe.
And the next parliament takes us almost up to the close date, so they'd have to move quickly if they had it in their manifesto for the parliament after that.
Also, I feel like there's been a bit of a consensus established in British politics where it you want to change something constitutional you need to have a referendum. Those take time: campaign, referendum, bill. Also if we did hold a referendum it might well be no.
@Fion definitely a fair point, I'm still cautiously optimistic because PR is still extremely popular among the Labour membership and apart from the Tories, Labour is the only party not backing PR. Although ofc the main ways PR could be put in place is either Labour leadership adoption (which I hope will happen at some point). Alternatively if they're forced into coalition with the Libdems they would certainly have to accept it as a condition. Or potentially even Reform forckng the Tories to adopt it in order to come to some sort of pact with them.
I just don't see why Labour hasn't adopted it yet since it would spell an end to conservative majorities at least for a long time.
@joeym4 "They would certainly have to accept it as a condition"
I don't think this is true. They might have to accept a referendum on it, but this is probably the maximum they would accept in particular given that it won't be in the Labour Manifesto. Even that isn't sure, the Libdems didn't get anything close to that the last time they were in a coalition and then they had almost 60 seats. They'd probably have to accept some kind of compromise, such as a House of Lords elected by PR.
@amoebus not sure about an alternative eg House of Lords Reform since Labour seem quite keen on that, they did get the AV referendum during the coalition years so it's not like they didn't get anything. PR is such a rallying cry for the Libdems and small parties, I don't see why they would agree to a coalition without PR. And tbh even if it came to a referendum, it seems like most on the Labour left/right and Tory 'left'/right would rather vote Green/LibDem/Reform.