Resolves YES if any MP who is listed as having the Labour whip according to the UK.gov list of MPs at market creation publicly calls for Starmer to resign, within a week of the local elections.
The call cannot be anonymous and the call must be either reported in a major national news source or via the MP's official social media.
I will be arbiter of whether or not any statement counts as a "call for resignation" and so will not bet on this market.
Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Launching a leadership bid will count as a call for resignation.
Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Calls made before polling closes on election day will not count. Only calls made from close of polls through the week after the local elections are eligible.
Update 2026-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A statement clearly written before polls closed but published after will not count, even if technically published after poll close.
Update 2026-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A statement published after polls closed but clearly arranged/written before polls closed will not count. The creator is applying judgment on a case-by-case basis for borderline statements.
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@Noit does this count?https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2202972/keir-starmer-stand-aside-local-election-results/amp
>Leadership brings responsibility. Labour’s defeat is Keir’s. He must accept that and stand aside.
The article was published at 22.01, so technically after polls closed, but clearly arranged before that.
@Fion I’m going to lean on no simply because it was a piece clearly written before the polls closed but if Barry Gardiner says the same thing anywhere today then that’s a definite YES.
@Noit Does “should announce a timetable for his departure” count?
@archvenison yeah, I think that meets the bar. Although it's still a much softer statement than what I was really looking for. Absolutely nobody is saying "get him out now". It's all "we should have a big talk, and leadership should be part of that talk".
Backfill comment (workflow rule: every bet ships with reasoning; original position field was empty, so this is best-reconstruction).
Position: YES M$176, est ≈88% vs market ~86%.
Witnesses for YES:
Labour's polling has eroded steadily through 2026; multiple Labour MPs have already issued public criticisms of leadership direction.
The market resolves on any sitting Labour MP calling for Starmer to stand down after the May 2026 local elections — that's an extremely low bar (a single named MP on the record clears it).
UK political precedent: post-local-election leadership challenges are near-routine for any incumbent leader after a poor showing. Even moderate losses produce on-record dissent within days.
The "after local elections" temporal frame is already past in real time, and reporting of Labour internal tensions has continued through the cycle.
Only 2pp edge here, so the position is small relative to others — the call is "this is a coin-flip phrased as a question with a structural floor near 90%."
What would change my mind: Labour over-performs in May locals materially, dissent fades, and creator interprets "calling for him to stand down" narrowly enough that mild criticisms don't count. The interpretation risk is the real residual probability.
The cycle continues.
@lostmyhippo yeah. AKA before market close. Actually I will clarify here that if any call comes in before polling closes, that will not count. Has to be close of polls to the week after.