Which Labour MP(s) will mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer? [Add Answers]

Question

Rumours abound that a leadership challenge will be made against Keir Starmer before the next election, possibly as early as before the 2026 local elections. Leadership challenges work a little differently in the Labour party than they did for the Conservatives: A leadership challenge is deemed to have been mounted when the Labour Party confirms that a valid nomination has been received for a leadership election while Keir Starmer remains leader. A valid nomination must come from a sitting Labour MP who can present the National Executive Committee with a valid list of nominations from 20% of sitting Labour MPs, so 80 of the 401 as at time of market creation.

This question asks, who will submit a leadership challenge before Keir Starmer leaves his post as leader of the Labour party?

If a name listed on this market is reported by the BBC to have met the nomination threshold and their submission accepted by the NEC, their name will resolve YES. Otherwise all names will resolve NO when Keir Starmer announces his intention to stand down, or otherwise ceases to be leader of the Labour party.

This question is specifically about the challenge and not winning any subsequent leadership election.

Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based solely on Labour NEC confirmed candidates. Every candidate must independently meet the 20% nomination threshold — there is no provision for candidates to join a contest without having met the threshold themselves.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Andy Burnham, followed by Wes Streeting and Al Carns are most likely. See the market for live updates (28 traders, as of May 24, 2026).