ha ha ha ha

AND AS FOR THE CURRENT INCUMBENT … the Times politics team has an intriguing story in their podcast this morning — reporting that Starmer has no plans to step down before the Labour conference and is unlikely to leave office before Christmas. The theory is that even if Burnham wins in Makerfield, he won’t be able to take over as PM until after the mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester. And that if Labour loses that, it could scupper Burnham altogether and leave a messy (and winnable for the PM) contest to succeed Starmer running into early 2027. 

Mixed reviews: A minister briefed on the discussions told the Times the above is “batsh*t.” And in Ailbhe Rea’s great long-read in the New Statesman, a source intriguingly described as a “Labour figure who has recently returned to the backbenches” says everything going on in No. 10 is now all about “what’s best for Keir” rather than the country or party. Say what you really think.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/supermarkets-weep/

I can't think of any reason Burnham would need to wait for the result of the Mayoral election before launching his challenge so it smells like nonsense to me. Anyone got any better insight?

@Noit I think the most likely scenario for Burnham not immediately challenging if he wins, is that he loses all his popularity during the by-election and decides to wait a year or two so he doesn't look so opportunistic.

Up to 3 months before Makerfield writ (but I am guessing much shorter is highly likely)
Then 3-4 weeks before bye election date
Then ? before triggering leadership election
Then ~3.5 months for leadership election before Starmer ousted.

It is going to go on a while but into 2027 seems unlikely?

@ChristopherRandles I think writ will be very fast. I also think leadership challenge will come pretty quickly after entering parliament. Everybody knows exactly why he's doing this, he knows he's got the support, and if you're going to do it, the sooner the better. Clock is ticking until the next general election!

For me, the probability mass of Starmer still being PM at the end of the year comes more from Burnham not getting elected, and nobody else having enough support, rather than Burnham being slow but getting there in 2027.

@Fion yes Burnham not getting elected is a possibility. If that happens, with over 81 having said they want Starmer to go or set out timetable to go, these MPs may well not agree on which replacement. However I figure they find someone to wield the dagger and once leadership election triggered, others can then join. The one who wields the dagger usually doesn't win so it can be a sacrificial lamb candidate before the real candidates join. Still need 81 MPs? Can an MP be on more than 1 person's 81MP list?

What might be a problem is if Burnham loses by-election narrowly and seems intent on finding another Westminster seat. Some MPs might want to wait while others don't but don't have the numbers?

@ChristopherRandles yes, I'm pretty sure anyone who wants to jump on the bandwagon and join the leadership contest also needs 81 MPs, and once you've nominated somebody, you can't change to somebody else. So I don't think "sacrificial lamb" dynamics will apply. If you nominate somebody, it's because they're the candidate you want to win. Probably.

I think with Burnham out of the picture, Streeting and Rayner could both get 81 signatures. But I'm far from certain.

But I don't think Burnham gets a second chance. If he loses this by-election (losing a Labour seat for nothing), it would be insane hubris to go for a second one.

@Fion Yes I think you are essentially right: "No Switching: Once an MP formally endorses and submits a nomination for a candidate, they are unable to switch their support to a different contender. The only exception is if the candidate they originally backed drops out of the race entirely."

So if 2 candidates each have say 60 MPs and they expect to get to at least 81 after leadership election is triggered, they could persuade enough (40 each?) of their supporters to nominate a sacrificial lamb who then drops out? However, if the sacrificial lamb as the only contender to Starmer drops out before anyone else reached 81 and enters election, is the contest then over and they are back to square 1? One of the candidates would have to find 60 more nominators after election is triggered which might not happen?

Streeting resigns from cabinet

Looks like it might be over soon

labour is so fucking dumb

@Noit Just to make sure I'm understanding right, this market is based on when Starmer actually stops being PM, not when his resignation/removal is announced, correct?

@archvenison correct, if he e.g. announces in June he'll be leaving in December , it resolves to December and not June. The key part is whether he is holding the post.

@Noit OK so the June one should be strictly greater that the inverse of this market: https://manifold.markets/brod/starmer-out-before-july

@archvenison and the difference between the two should be this market: /Fion/will-starmer-be-in-the-process-of-l

If you don’t think Starmer will last ten weeks, I’ve just put up a big limit order at 70%. Have at it.

@Noit thanks. I think he will, but I'm long on Starmer in multiple markets, so pleased to de-risk. :)

@Fion this market isn't an exact arb, but if anybody wants to come and bail me out here, go for it: https://manifold.markets/brod/starmer-out-before-july?r=Rmlvbg

Lots of liquidity in this one!

13 December 2019: Jeremy Corbyn announces his resignation as leader of the Labour Party effective the outcome of the 2020 leadership election
4 April 2020: Result of the membership ballot announced
so over 3.5 months last time.

He won't go before local elections May 7th. Whether there will be a reflection period before resignation, well who knows.

They might shorten the election process to reduce long period with lame duck PM but how long will that take to organise after local elections on May 7th? Add the shortened process length that they will want to appear as a proper process not a fix. So is it highly likely he will still be there at 30 June 2026 even with very bad local election results on 7th May?

As much as people dislike Starmer, the Labour party has seen the chaos that was caused by the Conservatives constantly switching PMs and won't want to copy it.

@TomTrader but what if they were retarded?

Keir Starmer should resign after Labour loses a seat they won by 36% in 2024!

Historically British prime ministers do finish their term and I simply don't see strong enough challengers within or outside Labour

@astroblob at this point if he is to go, there won't be a challenge, it will be the Thatcher scenario.

I don't think it's in Israel's interests that kier starmer stops being PM

Whoever replaces him, in this current environment, would likely be much less friendly. This is something which is unlikely to be let to happen.

Feel free to bring the odds back down so I can bet more.