Historically British prime ministers do finish their term and I simply don't see strong enough challengers within or outside Labour

@astroblob at this point if he is to go, there won't be a challenge, it will be the Thatcher scenario.

I don't think it's in Israel's interests that kier starmer stops being PM

Whoever replaces him, in this current environment, would likely be much less friendly. This is something which is unlikely to be let to happen.

Feel free to bring the odds back down so I can bet more.

Honestly I think the prices on a 2026 leave date are daft. I’m happy to keep sticking limit orders on, but 2026-out buyers, what process do you see this happening by? Starmer isn’t going to resign short of losing a leadership contest. Burnham isn’t getting the Gorton and Denton seat, so any challenger has to be a current MP. And they have to be able to get 120 other MPs on board to even trigger that contest. Do you think Streeting has that level of support? Or Rayner? I don’t.

If you don’t want to tell me then just buy into my limit orders.

@Noit Burnham turning down an offer of a seat in 2027 might mean he hasn't given up on 2026 ambitions: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/26/andy-burnham-try-again-westminster-return

Also, we don't know yet how the May elections are going to go. If they're bad enough, there might be enough MPs calling for Starmer to resign that he'll consider his position untenable. Or even if he doesn't, maybe the Rayner/Streeting supporters will reach 120.

I'm not saying this is very likely to happen, and I'm certainly not buying your limit orders, but I'm hesitant to move the market much higher than where it is just now.

@Noit a cheeky corruption and pedophile scandal might do it though!

@Flusskrebs it’s a generational fumble and I’m fuming. The only bright side is that everything I said is still true, he has to resign, and I don’t think he will, or Labour has to unite around a backup. So the ball’s in Streeting and Rayner’s court, I guess.

@Noit oh absolutely, he's stubborn. But even the Guardian are headlining with "PM done" type stuff now, and is it more likely there's further scandal to come related to the Mandelson case, or that this is all of it?

Generally the government in the UK lasts for its whole political term and so does the prime minister, the conservative party (before the current government took power) experimented though with a series of short term prime ministers. Think like a disposable camera, but a prime minister version.

On the one hand, it's really useful and interesting to see how different ways of phrasing the question bias my intuition, but on the other hand, it's a real pain in the neck trying to arbitrage all the various versions! Somebody needs to write a bot!