Note (February 2024)

Data is already available and suggests a decline in sales. However, I committed to resolving this based on GFI's report when it becomes available, which may not be until Spring 2024. I believe it is bad practice to do otherwise, as clear as the already available data may be. Contrary to what is claimed below, GFI does not strictly rely on Mintel data (or data available to Mintel). If GFI does not publish a report by the end of April 2024, I will resolve based on the data that is available.

Will sales increase in 2023 compared to 2022 (in the U.S.)?

Plant-based meat is defined as a meat substitute that is produced directly from plants (or e.g. protein extracted from plants). Plant-based meat does not include tofu. Plant-based meats include imitations or analogs of animal-sourced meats such as Beyond, Impossible, Lightlife, Boca, Gardein, etc., but not cultured meat or plant-based animal products such as analogs of dairy and eggs.

I will use Good Food Institute data for resolution when it becomes available.

More specifically, I will use resolution criteria used by Metaculus for 2022 here. Note in particular:

"If such a report or such a number is not available from GFI for 2022, this question will be evaluated based on another market report or data source (e.g. from the Plant Based Foods Association) that is available for both 2022 and 2023 so that numbers from the same source are compared.

If a report from the same source for these two years cannot be obtained, best effort will be made to estimate the growth based on available sources (preferably analyses and reports by market research organizations and organizations specialized in plant-based meat and related fields; an estimate could also be made based on sales growth data for several top plant-based meat companies, if available)."

Bet on the size of the Y2Y change here: