By how much will sales of plant-based meats increase over 2023?
resolved Apr 17

Note (February 2024)

Data is already available and suggests a decline in sales. However, I committed to resolving this based on GFI's report when it becomes available, which may not be until Spring 2024. I believe it is bad practice to do otherwise, as clear as the already available data may be. Contrary to what is claimed below, GFI does not strictly rely on Mintel data (or data available to Mintel). If GFI does not publish a report by the end of April 2024, I will resolve based on the data that is available.

Answer is in percentage of growth of total sales in 2023 compared to 2022 in the U.S.

Plant-based meat is defined as a meat substitute that is produced directly from plants (or e.g. protein extracted from plants). Plant-based meat does not include tofu. Plant-based meats include imitations or analogs of animal-sourced meats such as Beyond, Impossible, Lightlife, Boca, Gardein, etc., but not cultured meat or plant-based animal products such as analogs of dairy and eggs.

I will use Good Food Institute data for resolution when it becomes available.

More specifically, I will use resolution criteria used by Metaculus here. Note in particular:

If such a report or such a number is not available from GFI for 2022, this question will be evaluated based on another market report or data source (e.g. from the Plant Based Foods Association) that is available for both 2022 and 2023 so that numbers from the same source are compared.

If a report from the same source for these two years cannot be obtained, best effort will be made to estimate the growth based on available sources (preferably analyses and reports by market research organizations and organizations specialized in plant-based meat and related fields; an estimate could also be made based on sales growth data for several top plant-based meat companies, if available).

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In 2023, total plant-based food dollar sales declined 2 percent while unit sales declined 9 percent. Six in 10 U.S. households purchased plant-based foods, similar to the prior year.

@dionisos At long last! Last time I checked was yesterday afternoon LOL.

@SirCryptomind I’m on the phone and the UI doesn’t allow me to input a negative value for resolution. Can you try resolving it to -2?

Nevermind. It worked by copying the value from text.

@NicoDelon Will you do the market for 2024 ?

@dionisos Nah since I’m retiring. Feel free to do it and copy/alter as you please.

Reopening so Manifold stops bugging me about it, which I find silly.

Can you please resolve?
The data I provided from Mintel is the same data GFI (your source) uses.


@SirCryptomind Thanks. I’ll wait for the source linked in the description to update before resolving.

@NicoDelon Its the same data source.

@SirCryptomind I don’t understand why you want me to disregard my own resolution criteria. What’s the rush? The description has always implied that this could take time to resolve.

@NicoDelon I'm not, apologies.

metaculus resolved though (no opinion, just noting)

@jacksonpolack did they have a market for 2023? The one I linked to was for 2022.

lol whoops

Given how low /NicoDelon/will-sales-of-plantbased-meats-incr is trading I’m wondering if this one shouldn’t be in the negative.

predicted HIGHER
bought Ṁ100 of HIGHER

bringing it close to the Metaculus prediction

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