Who will break 2:00 in the marathon?
15
175
633
2031
1%
Kelvin Kiptum
4%
Eliud Kipchoge
3%
Evans Chebet
37%
No one by market close
13%
Sisay Lemma
9%
Alexander Mutiso Munyao
31%
Other

Resolves to the first runner to complete an official marathon race under a time of 2:00:00. If no runner satisfies the criterion by market close, it will resolve to ‘No one by market close.’

The event must be a race sanctioned by an official national or international athletic body (e.g. USATF or World Athletics). The runner may be male or female, the race may be run on roads or trails. Some marathons allow pacers (which would not invalidate the record), but no officially sanctioned marathon allows drafting (e.g. by a motorized vehicle). The sort of event a la Nike’s Breaking 2, where Kipchoge ran just a shy under 2 hours, would not count.

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Kelvin Kiptum

@NicoDelon same with this one

@mint I can't

Kelvin Kiptum

Arbitrage with the not-Kiptum-2024 market and "Will Kiptum break 2 hours"

If he's gonna get 2:00 ever, he'll probably be first. I think he's gonna burn out. Love to be proven wrong.

I guess I am a little bit more interested in the same question, but with one conditional attached:

If Kelvin Kiptum does not break 2:00 in the marathon in 2024, who will be the first to break 2:00 in the marathon?

For now, I'll buy some Yes Kiptum.

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