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MANIFOLD
Who will be the first human to run an official marathon in under two hours?
24
Ṁ1.5kṀ7.3k
resolved Apr 26
ResolvedN/A
86%
Sabastian Sawe
12%
Sebastian Sawe

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge

The Ineos 1:59 Challenge, held on 12 October 2019, was an attempt by Kenyan athlete Eliud Kipchoge to break the two-hour mark for running the marathon distance, which he achieved in a time of 1:59:40.2. The event was specifically created for Kipchoge and held in Vienna, Austria... 41 pacemakers, rotating in and out in groups of 7, assisted Kipchoge throughout the attempt. Due to the presence of the pacemakers, delivery of hydration by bicycle, and the lack of open competition, the achievement was not eligible to be ratified as a marathon world record, and is not recognized as such by World Athletics.

Will stay open until it happens

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Technically shouldn’t this just resolve to Other (Yomif Kejelcha)? Sabastian Sawe had the faster time, but Kejelcha did it “first”.

@bens How so? Didn’t Sawe cross the finish line first?

Yudkowksy holders devasted

@JaundicedBaboon I mean he could still break two hours. He just won’t be the first.

yet another linked mc market ruined by double adding answers :\
eternal manifold problem

@strutheo one easy solution is locking answers early and only adding new options on request. The ‘Other’ option works fine. There should also be a presumption that a typo that hasn’t been contested and matches the only natural referent of the answer takes precedence over later additions. In this context there is just no reason to think that Sawe could have referred to anyone but the actual Sawe that anyone following marathons knows.

@JimHays @strutheo this should NA. Absolutely not cool of Jim to do this.

@JimHays I don’t think you should have created that option. It should NA. It’s obvious who I meant with mine and it was way too late for me to change the spelling.

@MachiNi Names are important and should be spelled correctly

@JimHays it’s fucking autocorrect. As you’ll see in my own market on the same question it was spelled correctly there. I created the option here six months ago and every trader understood what it meant. If you had an issue you should have brought it up earlier. Names are important. So is not being a d*** about it.

@MachiNi Doesn’t make it right. If you were a journalist writing an article for a news org I ran, I would make you fix it and post a correction notice

@JimHays right, manifold mc options are exactly like news outlets. Did you make me fix it?

@MachiNi I didn’t say they’re exactly the same. But this market was, among other things, a news market, so there’s a parallel

@JimHays and yet you didn’t do anything about it until after Sawe had broken the record and people had already placed bets. And what you did was not request a spelling change but create a separate option. Don’t pretend you care about spelling.

@MachiNi I didn’t fix it earlier because I wasn’t following this market. Once the news is out and the mistake is already there, it’s pretty hard to fix

@JimHays which is exactly what makes your way of ‘fixing’ it obnoxious

I’m not claiming I fixed it. But I did make it so that those who see this market will see the right spelling. If that’s obnoxious, so be it.

I do wish Manifold would implement controls for market creators to better handle these situations

@JimHays oh come on. Literally zero people in the world would have seen the market after resolving to ‘Sebastian Sawe’ and thought that a different person than Sabastian Sawe had broken 2 hours. You’re making stuff up.

@MachiNi It’s not that they’d think it’s a different person, it’s that they’d come away with an incorrect spelling in their head

@JimHays OMG the horror. Can you imagine? Three randos will look at a resolved market and come away thinking it’s Sebastian not Sabastian. You really had to step in. You must be a charm at dinner parties.

Nico boughtṀ100 NO

@NicoDelon Except for the close date actually. Good for arbitrage.