Will Kelvin Kiptum break 2hrs in an official marathon?
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230Ṁ2817resolved Feb 12
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He is 23 years old and ran 2:00:35 in Chicago
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feel stupid betting on this but Kelvin Kiptum has passed away in a road accident so this won't be happening in this realm https://nation.africa/kenya/sports/athletics/shock-as-world-marathon-record-holder-kiptum-coach-die-in-road-accident-4522064
Great question. This depends on how long it is before he gives himself a permanent injury with insane training plans.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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Related questions
Who will break 2:00 in the marathon?
Who will be the first human to run an official marathon in under two hours?
When will a human first go sub 2 hours in an offical marathon?
When will someone run a marathon under 2:00 hours at an officially sanctioned race?
2027
In what year will a human complete an official, verified marathon in under two hours?
Will Eliud Kipchoge ever win the NYC or Boston marathon?
10% chance
Will Faith Kipyegon become the first woman to break four minutes in the mile as part of the Breaking4 project?
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