Resolves N/A if Kiptum breaks 2:00 by January 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves to the first runner to complete an official marathon race under a time of 2:00:00. If no runner satisfies the criterion by market close, it will resolve to ‘No one by market close.’
The event must be a race sanctioned by an official national or international athletic body (e.g. USATF or World Athletics). The runner may be male or female, the race may be run on roads or trails. Some marathons allow pacers (which would not invalidate the record), but no officially sanctioned marathon allows drafting (e.g. by a motorized vehicle). The sort of event a la Nike’s Breaking 2, where Kipchoge ran just a shy under 2 hours, would not count.
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Canceled because it is now redundant with the original, where there were many more traders: https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/who-will-break-200-in-the-marathon
@mint We can't resolve individual options early. Sadly this market is now the same as the non-conditional one.
My understanding is his first target in 2024 is Rotterdam and then supposedly the Olympics. If he does Rotterdam and the Olympics seriously, then it seems a little bit wild for him to go to Chicago 2024 also?
But that is part of what makes me like this form of the question more! He seems to be a little bit crazy and I rate him more likely than others to just completely disappear/flop and never be fast again. Ridiculous training stories, risk of injury, etc.
I'm buying No on this down to 20%! The biggest single chance for him is probably Chicago 2025.
@Eliza (Yes, I am hoping someone disagrees and bets him higher. Doesn't it seem a little ridiculous to price him at only a few percent more than the people he beat by over 1 minute in Chicago 2023 vs all other 2023s?)
@Eliza Couldn’t he try at Rotterdam? I’m not familiar with the course but he seems to excel on courses where you wouldn’t expect the records to be broken.
I agree he could do three marathons in 2024 because he’s a little crazy. Or could he skip the Olympics?!
@NicoDelon I think he could and will and it is possibly his most likely way to get 2:00 (if you include 2024). I bet him a lot higher in the other market 😉
@Eliza That would be wild. Even factoring in the shoes, if you’d asked me last year I wouldn’t have expected 2 hours to be broken in 2024.
Oooookay, so for me, this is a proxy for "rules changes make 2:00 harder". That could be shoe rules, anti-doping rules, etc. If Kiptum doesn't do it in 2024, it could possibly be due to sudden rule changes, which would be attributed to this block.
I don't think they are going to change the shoe rules between now and the Olympics, at least not across the board in all distances. Will they try to change the shoe rules in the immediate aftermath of the Olympics after a bunch of records get broken at various distances?
I think 2030 is enough time to find someone who gets magical speed from the shoes, buying No.
@Eliza The shoes are definitely part of the performances we’ve seen in the last few years (including Kipchoge). A 2:02 today doesn’t mean what a 2:02 would have meant even five years ago. From what I understand not everyone responds to the shoes equally, plus they ruin the spectacle. But I’m not sure what argument World Athletics or other associations could use to ban them. The horse has left the barn. So, without a rules change, the 2:00 limit is going down sooner than later.