When will someone run a marathon under 2:00 hours at an officially sanctioned race?
27
600Ṁ75432051
2027
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
That is, by what year...
The race must be sanctioned by an official national or international athletic body (e.g. USATF or World Athletics). The runner may be male or female, the race may be run on roads or trails. Some marathons allow pacers (which would not invalidate the record), but no officially sanctioned marathon allows drafting (e.g. by a motorized vehicle).
A bunch of related markets have been created since I made this one. Arbitrage as you can:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
People are also trading
Related questions
When will a human first go sub 2 hours in an offical marathon?
In what year will a human complete an official, verified marathon in under two hours?
Who will be the first human to run an official marathon in under two hours?
Who will break 2:00 in the marathon?
Will a legal sub two-hour marathon be run before December 31, 2025.
20% chance
Will a bipedal robot run a marathon in under 3 hours before a human runs a marathon in under 2 hours
38% chance
Will I run a marathon in 2024?
5% chance
Will I run a full marathon in 2024?
5% chance
Will a female runner run a mile in under 4 minutes by the end of 2030?
Will I run a ultramarathon by 2025?
61% chance