
When will someone run a marathon under 2:00 hours at an officially sanctioned race?
28
Ṁ341Ṁ7.6kresolved Apr 26
Resolved
20261H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
That is, by what year...
The race must be sanctioned by an official national or international athletic body (e.g. USATF or World Athletics). The runner may be male or female, the race may be run on roads or trails. Some marathons allow pacers (which would not invalidate the record), but no officially sanctioned marathon allows drafting (e.g. by a motorized vehicle).
A bunch of related markets have been created since I made this one. Arbitrage as you can:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ71 | |
| 2 | Ṁ30 | |
| 3 | Ṁ29 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?
77% chance
How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026?
Sub-1:58 marathon before LA Olympics?
13% chance
Sub-1:59 marathon before LA Olympics?
35% chance
Sub-2 World Marathon Majors 2026-2029
