Who will break 2:00 in the marathon?
Who will break 2:00 in the marathon?
17
1.8kṀ60442031
25%
20%
No one by market close
15%
Sabastian Sawe
14%
John Korir
14%
Jacob Kiplimo
5%
Sisay Lemma
3%
Alexander Mutiso Munyao
1.2%
Eliud Kipchoge
1.1%
Evans Chebet
Resolves to the first runner to complete an official marathon race under a time of 2:00:00. If no runner satisfies the criterion by market close, it will resolve to ‘No one by market close.’
The event must be a race sanctioned by an official national or international athletic body (e.g. USATF or World Athletics). The runner may be male or female, the race may be run on roads or trails. Some marathons allow pacers (which would not invalidate the record), but no officially sanctioned marathon allows drafting (e.g. by a motorized vehicle). The sort of event a la Nike’s Breaking 2, where Kipchoge ran just a shy under 2 hours, would not count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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