How much will cultured meat cost at the end of 2030? (Boosted Ṁ1,000)
Basic
22
2.0k
2031
40%
<$50/lb
24%
<$20/lb
16%
<$10/lb
14%
<$5/lb

I will walk into a grocery store US at the end of 2030 and calculate the average price of products that contain >50% cultured meat in 2024 inflation adjusted dollars. If I am unable to buy cultured meat in the US then all answers resolve No.

All answers resolve independently.

I will not bet on this market.
I will pick whatever local grocery store has the best cultured meat selection. If I'm not in the US I may delegate to someone or try to find pricing online.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 <$20/lb NO

-

I’m concerned that the most likely outcome is that of cultured meat is available, it’ll be significantly less than 50% actual cultured cells by weight.

If it’s going to work at scale, scaffolding will need to be a huge part of the product

@DavidFWatson interesting, I don’t know much about the field, do you have any reading recommendations?

@ahalekelly I just remember reading it, but can’t find the reference. Googling I found this

https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-cultivated-meat/deep-dive-cultivated-meat-scaffolding/

But it’s too technical for me to make heads or tails of.

What I know though, is that there’s gonna have to be some scaffolding, and the more scaffolding, the cheaper the product. Growing this stuff is gonna be expensive, even at scale, and you can optimize the cells to try to get more flavor out of them, allowing you to use less cultured cells and more filler/scaffolding

@DavidFWatson Thanks, but that article was too technical for me as well. This one was pretty helpful for my understanding:

https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23378912/meat-animals-beef-cultivated-in-vitro-food-plant-based-animal-welfare-impossible-burger

bought Ṁ10 <$50/lb NO

@ahalekelly That article is saying 10-20% by mass, definitely points to “no” across the board

Question, in the unlikely event that by the end of 2030 the US is no longer a country yet the new country it has become you can buy cultured meat will you still resolve all the answers as No?

@Leo74b6 Also to add onto that question are we taking into account inflation? If I pick < $50 is that the worth of 50 USD as of today or what 50 USD will be worth in 2030?

@Leo74b6 lol I will use the current 2024 geographical boundaries of the US. If I'm not in the US I may delegate to someone or try to find pricing online. Inflation is a good question, I think it's more useful to use 2024 inflation adjusted dollars. I will add these to the description.

More related questions