The market will resolve Yes if the law legalizing Cannabis in Germany comes into effect in 2023. In Geemany, Laws come into effect either on the date stated in the law itself or if not stated explicitly 14 days after the law was announced in the Bundesanzeiger. Thank you for the discussion that helped me clarify the criteria.
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Lauterbach says January 2024. CDU and others will try to delay further. EU not yet given. I see this question at 1%.
@JustifieduseofFallibilism I’m not sure. This market is about „comes into effect“. The other market you linked is about „government decided“.
@marktweise True. But for everything else e.g., If social clubs count, maybe we could use the same resolution criteria. Because it seems the creator of this market is not active anymore.
@bobzieh I think it should not count, since this market was explicitly about legalization in contrast to decriminalisation. Legalization includes being able to legally buy cannabis in some sort of store imo
@kottsiek I‘m unsure about this, as the plan atm seems to be for legal distribution, just not legal commercial distribution. So it’s more than decriminalisation. It is non commercial legalisation afaik.
(Full disclosure: I own a lot of NO shares)
@NickelChen can you clarify the resolution criteria? My understanding of „legalize“ when betting was whether Cannabis becomes legal in 2023 in the sense of German citizens being able to legally buy cannabis before 2024.
Is this how you will resolve? Would passing the law to legalize cannabis in 2023 count as YES even if it only comes into effect later than 2023?
Germany: Lauterbach outlines cannabis legalization plan
Germany's Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) had said last month that cannabis could potentially be legalized by 2023.
However, federal Drug and Addiction Commissioner Burkhard Blienert had suggested in July that it was questionable if such a law could be implemented before 2024.
The governing coalition is expected to present a draft law at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
@Chocobo I think you could make the argument that if the legislation passes in 2023 but isn't implemented until 2024, this should still resolve to YES. I think "official government register of laws says it's legal" is closer to the generally understood sense of "legal" than "law enforcement is no longer arresting and prosecuting people for this."
@akrasiac I disagree. My sense of legalize would entail that you would be able to actually legally buy cannabis before 2024. I would feel a bit cheated if this resolves as YES even though they pass a law that only comes into effect after 2023.
@akrasiac What if a law is passed in 2023 that allows legal consumption in 2024 (so you could still be arrested in 2023)?
@kottsiek I agree that this is the sort of sitaution I'm referring to. Perhaps the market creator can clarify how it would resolve under these circumstances.
@MaxG I see your point, but I guess I worry that whether a law has been fully implemented has the potential to be unclear, but whether it has passed is pretty easy to determine. For example, a law against sale of alcohol could come into existence, and specify that this is only to be enforced by agents of a yet-to-be-created agency. Let's further say the law doesn't provide sufficient money to hire the agents. The resolution fo this situation could get complicated. In that case it seems like the passage of the law is the only clear point at which to mark the banning of alcohol.
@akrasiac I get your point but the resolution criteria I imagine from my side would be something like: „3 credible news sources report on the first sale of legal recreational cannabis in Germany“. That is also very clear and I don’t see how it would be ambiguous. Once you’ll be able to buy it, I imagine news teams will even be filming the first dude to buy a few grams in a store in Berlin or something
