When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave? | Manifold

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

️ Politics Metaculus Scotland Scottish independence

Basic

41

Ṁ1.6k

2050

58%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/scotland-votes-leave-in-next-union-referendum/

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Almost, but not quite, arbitragable (won't resolve N/A in 2050):

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