Will there be a Scottish independence referendum (indyref2) by 2030?
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75
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2030
22%
chance

Scotland's independence referendum in 2014 was defeated by a vote 55% for remaining in the United Kingdom. Responding to the Brexit referendum in 2016, the Scottish National Party (SNP) began pursuing a second referendum, efforts towards which continue even to the time of writing this question.

In 2022 the SNP was rebuffed by the Supreme Court which ruled that the Scottish government cannot hold a referendum on independence without the consent of the British government.

Earlier in 2022, the SNP's previous leader, Nicola Sturgeon, said that the next Scottish election could be treated as a de facto referendum on independence. For the purposes of this question, only a formal referendum counts.

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