There is a Scottish Parliament election scheduled on Thursday 7th May 2026. After the election, MSPs elect a First Minister. If they fail to do so within 28 days, a fresh election is called.
This has never happened since the parliament's formation in 1999. Polls look likely that the SNP will be the largest party but well short of a majority. The last time this happened, in 2007, enough opposition parties abstained that allowed the SNP's candidate for First Minister to be elected. But today, politics is more polarised and the SNP have been in power for a long time. Will small parties be more resistant to letting the SNP sail through this time?
I may bet in this market.
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Swinney has been elected. Resolving NO
@AlanTennant I hope it's not extreme. Definitely not impossible, but the SNP got way more seats than I expected when I made this market. Everybody is talking as if an SNP government is in the bag. No other party has anything like a reasonable case that they're better placed. If nothing else, the SNP plus Greens have a majority between them. They'll figure something out.
To be fair, I'd probably put the chances at almost 1%, but it's a quick return. If I'd known the Starmer stuff was going to kick off so much I'd have saved my mana!