Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
18
216
1.1k
2028
72%
Ron Desantis
22%
Donald Trump
40%
Ted Cruz
70%
Marco Rubio
54%
Greg Abbott
34%
Tucker Carlson
76%
Nikki Haley
20%
Mike Johnson
50%
Glenn Youngkin
29%
Vivek Ramaswamy
50%
Kristi Noem
50%
Tim Scott
34%
Donald Trump Jr.
50%
Elise Stefanik
34%
Marjorie Taylor Greene

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are:

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.

If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page".

When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO.

See also: /DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-pre

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Satan

Does this mean Satan isn't winning?

Marjorie Taylor Greene

@DanMan314 Marjorie Taylor Greene's surname isn't hyphenated.

@Unown Edited, I don't think I added that one but nice to fix.