Who will Nate Silver get hired by?
Who will Nate Silver get hired by?
15
960Ṁ523resolved Aug 2
60%41%
Substack
40%5%
An option not listed at market close
3%Other
5%
The New York Times
3%
The Washington Post
0.1%
AI Impacts
3%
CNN
0.6%
Alphabet
1.2%
YouGov
1.3%
Reuters
6%
The Financial Times
3%
ABC
1.7%
Pew Research Centre
14%
He’ll get private investment
8%
Bloomberg
3%
538 changes their mind and hires him back
0.2%
The Atlantic
0.2%
MSNBC
0.2%
The Guardian
0.2%
Vox
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Right, what's our resolution here? I'm minded to say half "substack" and half "an option not listed at market close"
He's a mediocre dude, rather standard demographic models, most states have predictable elections. His sports models also fail.
Whereas I predict societal collapse from peak oil and am always right.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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