If ICE or CBP kills another civilian AND it results in at least one protest, this resolves Yes. I made this criteria to have some way of asking about an unjustified killing, without it being too subjective.

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 67% chance (25 traders, as of Mar 30, 2026).

Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?

Will ICE kill a US Citizen by the End of April 2026?

+14% 1d54% chance

Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?

-5% 1d7% chance

How many people will ICE/CBP kill in 2026?

9.4

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

57% chance

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

67% chance

How many U.S. civilians will be killed by federal law enforcement agents in 2026?

763

Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?

18% chance

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

7% chance

What is the largest number of people US federal law enforcement will kill in a single incident before January 20, 2029?

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

25% chance