Large meaning more than 1-10 people and Violent meaning getting in armed conflict with ICE officers ( Firearms, Weapons etc). Unarmed conflict can be counted as well, but it must result in great bodily harm to be considered serious, Vehicles may also be considered (ie ICE hitting protesters or protesters hitting ICE with a car) In general something large enough to make national news. Simple violence like pushing, spitting, slapping and one off small scale instances of punching, etc will not be counted

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if there is a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026 that meets the following criteria:

• Scale: Involves more than 10 people

• Violence: Includes armed conflict with firearms or weapons, vehicle-based violence (vehicles used as weapons), or unarmed combat resulting in serious injury requiring medical attention

• Notability: Receives significant national news coverage

Simple violence such as pushing, spitting, or slapping does not qualify. The incident must be substantial enough to warrant national media attention.

Resolution will be determined by documented reports from major news outlets and official sources. In lieu of this verifiable non Ai generated indivdual coverage may also be considered in the event of media suppression.

Background

Since Trump's second presidential term began on January 20, 2025, large-scale ICE enforcement operations have increased across major metropolitan areas. In June 2025, ICE raids in Los Angeles sparked protests that turned into riots, with clashes between protesters and law enforcement. Throughout 2025, violent incidents have occurred including an ICE vehicle running over protesters in San Francisco, a U-Haul accelerating toward barricades in Alameda with authorities opening fire, and an ICE agent fatally shooting an activist in January 2026. Over 700 immigration-related demonstrations have been recorded across all 50 states in 2025, representing 27% of all reported protest events.

Considerations

While 97% of immigration-related demonstrations in 2025 involved no violent or contentious activity, confrontations between protesters and law enforcement have been recorded at multiple events, including at least three apparent car-ramming attacks targeting demonstrators. ICE has characterized some confrontations as "riots," with claims that protesters threw rocks, chunks of ice, and used pepper spray against officers. Disputes may arise over whether specific incidents meet the threshold of "large violent dispute" versus isolated clashes or minor altercations.