
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
246
2.1kṀ17k2029
60%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will be decided subjectively unless I see a poll on this
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?
46% chance
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
78% chance
Public opinion, late 2025: Out-of-control AI becoming a threat to humanity, a real threat?
Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?
24% chance
Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?
6% chance
In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
10% chance
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
65% chance
Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will AI lead to an S-risk by 2100?
25% chance