Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?

Question

Eliezer Yudkowsky is an American writer and researcher on artificial intelligence and decision theory.

Sesame Street is a long-running educational children’s television series that features Muppets, animation, live action, and celebrity guests. This market resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky makes an appearance on Sesame Street (as himself or as a character) in any episode that airs before January 1st, 2030. It resolves as NO otherwise.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (89 traders, as of Feb 13, 2026).