Will AI lead to an S-risk by 2100?
16
1kṀ3587
2100
25%
chance

Will resolve to N/A on Jan 1st, 2100.

Close date updated to 2100-01-01 3:59 pm

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This is way too high 😟

I think this might just be because the market won't resolve for awhile and will resolve N/A, so you can get liquidity by buying YES if the NO prob is low and getting the site loans on the YES shares. It only requires a single person to think this way to affect the price, so you wouldn't expect the market to be calibrated. Maybe a bad market in retrospect.

What counts as an S-risk?

This is guaranteed to resolve N/A?

@IsaacKing Yes

I see. So it's basically a long-term version of my polling system. Interesting.

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