Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if humans successfully* land on any planet, asteroid, or moon** beyond the Earth-moon system*** (I use Mars in the title just for brevity), without using Starship for any part of the journey****
Otherwise resolves NO at the end of 2054 (or may resolve NO early if it's sufficiently clear that a YES resolution is impossible)
* At least one human must live for at least 3 minutes
** Other similar naturally existing bodies would also count, as well as landing on man-made constructions in the atmosphere of a body (though remaining in orbit would not count)
*** Let's say for simplicity: the body has to be at least 1,000,000km away from Earth (for reference: the moon is ~400,000km; Mars is ~300,000,000km)
**** Without being aboard, propelled by, or on a vehicle that is refuelled by Starship, or a Starship-derived vehicle
I'll define Starship-derived vehicle fairly loosely - eg a big rocket developed by SpaceX that has at least some recognisable shared heritage; or eg a modified version of Starship developed by someone other than SpaceX, but through an agreement with SpaceX
Though Starship-inspired does not count - eg if a foreign start-up develops a Starship clone, it would not count as Starship-derived, no matter how similar it is, or even if they stole IP from Spacex to develop it
I reserve the right to modify aspects of the resolution criteria for some time at my discretion and based on feedback
Inspired by the following tweet:
1,000You know what, as per:
"""
I reserve the right to modify aspects of the resolution criteria for some time at my discretion and based on feedback
"""
I'm gonna modify the market to just be 'will it happen by 2055?' instead of 'will it happen before Eric Berger dies' because while having it be tied to whether Eric Berger himself actually gets to see it in his life is fun - it doesn't really add any predictive value and only complicates things unnecessarily