Based on this post:

Separate markets for each of the three clauses, plus one for all three of them being true.

Operationalizations:

"Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems": Minimal problems is somewhat subjective, but I'll interpret it as meaning there's nothing big and glaring that's reported right away.

"NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025": Resolves when the mission flies, not when the contract is awarded. "with cargo" = no crew, more stuff in it than there was on the previous uncrewed demo.

"Starliner-1": The next crewed Starliner flight, whether it uses the Starliner-1 designation or not. An uncrewed mission named Starliner-1 would be against the spirit of the prediction and would not count.

"In the next month": September 9, 11:59 PM Eastern

"In 2025", "In 2026": After January 1 12:00 AM and before December 31, 11:59 PM Eastern of the respective year