Based on this post:
Separate markets for each of the three clauses, plus one for all three of them being true.
Operationalizations:
"Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems": Minimal problems is somewhat subjective, but I'll interpret it as meaning there's nothing big and glaring that's reported right away.
"NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025": Resolves when the mission flies, not when the contract is awarded. "with cargo" = no crew, more stuff in it than there was on the previous uncrewed demo.
"Starliner-1": The next crewed Starliner flight, whether it uses the Starliner-1 designation or not. An uncrewed mission named Starliner-1 would be against the spirit of the prediction and would not count.
"In the next month": September 9, 11:59 PM Eastern
"In 2025", "In 2026": After January 1 12:00 AM and before December 31, 11:59 PM Eastern of the respective year
1,000People are also trading
"A year later, the future of the Starliner program remains uncertain as NASA announced late Friday that the next flight of the spacecraft was being delayed from no earlier than late 2025 to now early 2026 at the soonest.
The agency said the timing of the next launch is “pending system certification and resolution of Starliner’s technical issues.” Repeating what it said back in a March 27 press release, NASA said it was still determining whether or not the next flight of Starliner would carry astronauts onboard."
It had a thruster problem but landed successfully. I'd say that counts within the realm of "minimal".
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2024/09/07/starliner-lands-in-new-mexico/
Starliner return estimated for September 6 allegedly - cutting it pretty close for this market!