Will humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Will humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
9
100Ṁ9282029
35%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by @DanHomerick
Open until one happens
Here's a market idea if you want to use it. I searched for an existing market for the topic, but didn't find one. It's a question that the YouTuber Marcus House asked as an outro in this video:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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