Will humans land on [eg Mars] without Starship before Eric Berger dies?
3
1kแน€1505
2099
14%
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Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if humans successfully* land on any planet, asteroid, or moon** beyond the Earth-moon system*** (I use Mars in the title just for brevity), without using Starship for any part of the journey****

Otherwise resolves NO when Eric Berger dies

* At least one human must live for at least 3 minutes

** Other similar naturally existing bodies would also count, as well as landing on man-made constructions in the atmosphere of a body (though remaining in orbit would not count)

*** Let's say for simplicity: the body has to be at least 1,000,000km away from Earth (for reference: the moon is ~400,000km; Mars is ~300,000,000km)

**** Without being aboard, propelled by, or on a vehicle that is refuelled by Starship, or a Starship-derived vehicle

  • I'll define Starship-derived vehicle fairly loosely - eg a big rocket developed by SpaceX that has at least some recognisable shared heritage; or eg a modified version of Starship developed by someone other than SpaceX, but through an agreement with SpaceX

  • Though Starship-inspired does not count - eg if a foreign start-up develops a Starship clone, it would not count as Starship-derived, no matter how similar it is, or even if they stole IP from Spacex to develop it

I reserve the right to modify aspects of the resolution criteria for some time at my discretion and based on feedback

Inspired by the following tweet:

Additional information:

Eric Berger is age 52, and an American male

So according to actuarial tables would have an expected 27 years of life left (I think?)

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