Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if all of the following conditions are met:
Flight 10 occurs no more than six weeks after Flight 9.
Flight 11 occurs no more than six weeks after Flight 10.
Flight 12 occurs no more than six weeks after Flight 11.
If six weeks pass without a launch, this market resolves NO.
Additional criteria:
Each flight must be a full-stack launch of Starship, regardless of the version.
A launch is defined as the vehicle lifting off from the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.
The six-week interval is measured from T-0 of one flight to T-0 of the subsequent flight.
Flight success is not required for resolution.
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@Nat
So if it blows up between T=0 and T+2seconds when lift-off is scheduled, and much of the rocket lifts off the ground due to the explosion:
Does launch count because you measure time from T=0 time?
or not count as lift-off not from the rocket's engine thrust?
or still count and the explosion is the vehicle's own thrust that propelled it up into air?
Sorry for the silly question, I am really just recommending replacing "its own thrust." with "the vehicle's own engine thrust"
Perhaps for clarity also change
measured from T-0 of one flight to T-0 of the subsequent flight.
to
measured from T-0 of one successful launch to T-0 of the next subsequent successful launch.
Unless you want to allow some more time in the event of a pre take off explosion. In a way Musk might be considered correct about the launch cadence if one explodes pre launch causing a gap of 8 weeks between successful launches. A limit of maybe 15 weeks for 3 'not scrubbed' launch attempts might have been a different (better?) way to test the accuracy of Musks launch cadence tweet? Or maybe: How many weeks for 3 'not scrubbed' launch attempts? with various options would be more interesting to see the distribution?
@ChristopherRandles Good catch on the launch definition, misremembered the standard wording, thank you for that, is corrected now
Re the T-0 to T-0 clause, I don't want to include 'successful' as success is an ambiguous term, but I feel like it's already well-defined as per the other criteria (a flight is a full stack launch; and a launch is defined by lift off).
As such, in the event where a launch attempt reaches T-0, engines ignite, and then either a RUD occurs or the computer shuts down the engines - the launch attempt hasn't met the criteria of a launch, and thus it doesn't count as a flight for the T-0 to T-0 clause.
Does that answer your question?
Also thank you for creating your market, I was tossing up between which format to go with and decided on this one because it allows for an earlier resolution if SpaceX is behind but I'm glad the 'total time' format exists as well