Will SpaceX launch IFT-3 by April AND successfully demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer?
14
Ṁ270Ṁ8.6kresolved Mar 14
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by April and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.
Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth
Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report
Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxSnl8J96XUzY43RZ8WxTcJVBoEknjqji9?si=yQUOdCUXq3XoK622
Therefore the resolution options are:
Will resolve Yes if they reach true orbit and demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they reach true orbit and fail to demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they fail to reach true orbit and succeed in demonstrating propellant transfer
Navigation:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ311 | |
| 2 | Ṁ17 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?
17% chance
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Will SpaceX Starship Flight 12 (the first Version 3 launch) successfully clear the pad by June 30, 2026?
92% chance
Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?
8% chance
When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?