Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship?
55
1kṀ11k2026
91%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any payload delivered to its intended orbit for its customer will count as a Yes.
Project Kuiper counts for New Glenn
Starlink counts for Starship
Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - 1st Blue Ring launch does not count.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
Blue Ring pathfinder is not considered a commercial payload since it is not a functional satellite.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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