Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship?
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33
Ṁ26602026
43%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
Any payload delivered to its intended orbit for its customer will count as a Yes.
Project Kuiper counts for New Glenn
Starlink counts for Starship
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@NGK This seems like the important question. ESCAPADE is a government satellite, which in industry parlance would often be considered "civil" instead of "commercial" space. But, it's for a paying customer (NASA), which I assume is what most traders have in mind for a market like this. It's not a dummy payload.
500 Yes at 15% if anyone wants it
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