
Which is preferable: enslavement due to proprietary AI or civilizational collapse due to open source AI?
117
resolved Jan 1
Enslavement due to proprietary AI
Civilizational collapse due to open source AI
Assume that there are only two possible outcomes to continued AI development:
Some company/government develops a sufficiently powerful AI and becomes a singleton, forever cementing its power over humanity.
Some sufficiently powerful open source model is used to kill a majority of people on Earth and to cause widespread civilizational collapse.
Which of these possible outcomes do you regard as preferable?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
68% chance
Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?
19% chance
If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?
Will AI decide to uncouple its destiny from humanity's?
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?
12% chance
If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?
Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?
62% chance
Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?
21% chance
If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
40% chance
Will anyone commit violence in order to slow the progression of AI?
67% chance