Will AI decide to uncouple its destiny from humanity's?

1kṀ410

2101

ALL

15%

By 2035

21%

By 2050

39%

By 2100

80%

Later or never

Besides the boom vs doom AI scenario, one of the discussions regarding a post AGI world involves coupled VS uncoupled. See below the definition we'll use for this market:

Coupled: AI keeps being connected to humanity. It doesn't matter whether AI rules, humans rule or whether there is no clear-cut distinction between the two any more
Uncoupled: AI decides to leave us to focus on its own problems or pursuits. There should be such a clear cut difference between AI and the rest of the world that it cannot be considered part of the same civilization. (Imagine the difference between monkeys and humans in 2024)

Technology

AI Safety

AI Doom

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will humanity wipe out AI?

14% chance

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will it regret its decision?

30% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2900?

20% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2600?

43% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3200?

46% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2800?

41% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2700?

53% chance

Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?

82% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3100?

36% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Sort by:

(Imagine the difference between monkeys and humans in 2024)

So, the AI keeps encroaching further and further into our habitat until eventually we go extinct?

Whether we go extinct doesn't affect the resolution of this market. It's about whether AI society is strongly connected to human society

nevermind, it was answered below 👍

This depends on the AIs being highly aligned to human preferences (ignoring human owned resources and leaving humans alone), yet without being controlled by humans. It also depends on all such AIs acting in the same way.

@singer if there are more than one kind of AI, and at least one leaves, the market resolves true

@SimoneRomeo What if it's configured by humans to uncouple itself?

@GazDownright it depends on what "configured" means. For example, if it's a part of an experiment to see what will happen, it would count as still being coupled. If it's more like an exile or the result of a power struggle then it should count as uncoupled. Does it make sense?