This market is inpired by /EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence and /IsaacKing/if-we-survive-general-artificial-in , as well as this blog post by @JonathanMann. It strikes me that the two markets above have too many options/too much jargon, which makes them sort of overwhelming. The taxonomy laid out in the blog post is easier to understand.

This resolves according to my judgement, guided as much as possible by the description in the blog post (I will not bet). I will resolve it when I feel it is clear that at-least-human-level AGI exists, or at the market close date in 2050, whichever comes later.