Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?
Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?
7
130Ṁ197
2101
10%
chance

If for any reason at least 50% of the sunlight currently available gets blocked for a significant amount of time (such that traditional agriculture would be rendered useless), this market resolves as Yes.

If some sunlight will be blocked, but not in a globally significant way, the market resolves as No.

Edit: It has to qualify as an existential catastrophe to resolve as Yes.

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1y

The ways I can imagine this resolving yes are:

  1. Nuclear Winter

  2. Supervolcano

  3. Very large meteor

  4. Space based solar power takes up more than 25 percent of the surface area of the atmosphere (and for 25%, is all focused on one hemisphere)

Any I'm missing?

1y

@RobertCousineau The first three are all the significant causes I'm aware of, but I wouldn't include the fourth one, because ig this wouldn't be done in a way that causes an existential catastrophe for humanity (if it does, though, I would count it).

1y

@MustaphaMondo I'd amend your resolution criteria then to be clear it must be an existential catastrophe then - my transhuman dreams often involve traditional agriculture being unnecessary (atleast for a large portion of the earth).

1y

@RobertCousineau I've edited it to be clearer. If agriculture would cease to be necessary for (post)humans, this wouldn't resolve as Yes (let's say N/A it that case).

1y

https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/will-a-supervolcano-eruption-happen?r=TXVzdGFwaGFNb25kbw

Will a supervolcano eruption happen by 2100?
13% chance.

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