Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?
7
130Ṁ1972101
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If for any reason at least 50% of the sunlight currently available gets blocked for a significant amount of time (such that traditional agriculture would be rendered useless), this market resolves as Yes.
If some sunlight will be blocked, but not in a globally significant way, the market resolves as No.
Edit: It has to qualify as an existential catastrophe to resolve as Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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