Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?

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2101

10%

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If for any reason at least 50% of the sunlight currently available gets blocked for a significant amount of time (such that traditional agriculture would be rendered useless), this market resolves as Yes.

If some sunlight will be blocked, but not in a globally significant way, the market resolves as No.

Edit: It has to qualify as an existential catastrophe to resolve as Yes.

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The ways I can imagine this resolving yes are:

Nuclear Winter
Supervolcano
Very large meteor
Space based solar power takes up more than 25 percent of the surface area of the atmosphere (and for 25%, is all focused on one hemisphere)

Any I'm missing?

@RobertCousineau The first three are all the significant causes I'm aware of, but I wouldn't include the fourth one, because ig this wouldn't be done in a way that causes an existential catastrophe for humanity (if it does, though, I would count it).

@MustaphaMondo I'd amend your resolution criteria then to be clear it must be an existential catastrophe then - my transhuman dreams often involve traditional agriculture being unnecessary (atleast for a large portion of the earth).

@RobertCousineau I've edited it to be clearer. If agriculture would cease to be necessary for (post)humans, this wouldn't resolve as Yes (let's say N/A it that case).