Non-AI catastrophe before 2100?
9
1kṀ1151
2099
23%
chance

Operationalised as 1billion or more people dying in a 365 day range that ends before 2100, conditional on there not being any AGI created before 2100

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Let's jaw-jaw what that could be. Asteroid or rogue planet of course. Would one see a star flung by that super massive BH more than 75 years in? Supervolcano not sure would be that quick. What kind of mass or radiation emission bursts from nearby space? Non AI directed weapons extant or to be invented. Microbials, wild probably not that quick. Designed maybe, particularly mirror ones.

opened a Ṁ2 YES at 25% order

That's a fitting name to bet yes on this question.

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