Will a supervolcano eruption happen by 2100?
7
150Ṁ8792101
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
This seems way too high - there have been 2 eruptions in the last 75000 years, 3 in the last 340,000, and 4 in the last 640,000 years.
This probability would imply that there is a decent chance one is purposefully triggered, which we're both not sure how to do and seems unlikely to happen even if we did.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?
39% chance
Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?
12% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption on or around Santorini before or during 2050?
50% chance
Will the Phlegraean Fields super volcano erupt by the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or greater before 2050?
34% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035?
47% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 7 or greater before 2075?
22% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2025?
62% chance
Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
43% chance
Will Yellowstone erupt before 2031?
21% chance