What % of Petrov Day will elapse before someone uses the big red button to take down Less Wrong's frontpage?
43
400Ṁ5991resolved Sep 27
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26
This year the pool of users who can use the button expands over time.
Resolves YES if the frontpage is never taken down, otherwise resolves PROB to the percentage of time elapsed between the start of the event (3am UTC) and 24 hours later (3am UTC on the 27th) at the time the frontpage is taken down.
Original market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will LessWrong the website have shutdown by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will "80,000 hours should remove OpenAI from the Jo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
7% chance
Will "' petertodd'’s last stand: The final days of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Introducing Open Asteroid Impact" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "Why I take short timelines seriously" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2030? *
86% chance
Will Lesswrong get fewer visits in March 2026 than in March 2023?
32% chance
Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2026? *
92% chance