What % of Petrov Day will elapse before someone uses the big red button to take down Less Wrong's frontpage?
Resolved
N/A

See https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26

This year the pool of users who can use the button expands over time.

Resolves YES if the frontpage is never taken down, otherwise resolves PROB to the percentage of time elapsed between the start of the event (3am UTC) and 24 hours later (3am UTC on the 27th) at the time the frontpage is taken down.

Original market:

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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
predicted YES
Multicore avatar

I've decided to go with N/A resolution.

I do think it is a strength of Manifold that markets can be resolved according to the commonsense interpretation of a question even in the face of annoying technicalities, but in this case:

-The issue here wasn't just an annoying technicality, but something where several people had reasonable arguments that it was a straightforward and obvious resolution.

-I did not adequately clarify in advance how I would deal with what I perceived as ambiguous situations.

-Multiple people suggested resolving N/A, or said they would consider resolving to 80% dishonorable.

I apologize for the insufficiently detailed market criteria. I have added more details to some of my existing markets, and in the future I will lean more toward rules-as-written or N/A resolution in case of ambiguity.

Happy Petrov Day

Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ50 of YES

According to habryka, the site went down at "~5:40pm PT", which is 12:40am UTC, or 9 2/3 hours out of 12, or about 80.6%.

Conflux avatar
Conflux
sold Ṁ6 of NO

@Conflux Hopefully I did the math right?

IsaacKing avatar

What minimum karma does this correspond to? If my math is correct, 80.6% corresponds to a little over 19 hours into the challenge, which I believe means anyone with 400 or more karma could have pressed it. But I thought I remembered seeing it go down to 300, so I'm worried I've made a mistake somewhere.

Conflux avatar
Conflux
predicted NO

@IsaacKing Nope, my math was just flat-out wrong here, I divided out of 12 hours instead of 24. Correct percentage is about 90.3. Good thing this market resolved N/A haha

Multicore avatar

Having read lots of comments here and elsewhere I am currently conflicted about whether to resolve N/A or not. If I don't resolve N/A, I will resolve in accordance with my previous ruling (the first one didn't count), so if you want to keep trading you can trade based on that premise.

Multicore avatar

@Multicore I think there are good arguments that 10% was the correct resolution, but I don't think it's an option after I ruled against it.

mkualquiera avatar

@Multicore I agree that shouldn't be an option anymore.

NikitaSokolsky avatar

LW is now dead (returns a 502)

Yev avatar
Yev
bought Ṁ200 of NO

It went down at 59%

AndrewHyer avatar

@NikitaSokolsky It seems to be back up now.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ10 of NO

It's difficult to incentivize people to not press the button, but here's an attempt: If we successfully get through Petrov day without anyone pressing the button (other than the person who has already done so via the bug), I will donate $50 USD to a charity selected by majority vote.

mkualquiera avatar
mkualquiera
predicted NO at 45%

Feelsadman. I'm pretty sure the person who pressed it initially had enough karma.

philh avatar
Phil Hazelden
predicted YES at 45%

@mkualquiera My read of Habryka's comment is that only zero-karma users could press it.

mkualquiera avatar
mkualquiera
predicted NO at 45%

@PhilipHazelden I really don't think that's the case :c

ev avatar
e v
predicted YES at 47%

@mkualquiera There was a bit of a clarifying edit after habryka initially commented; it currently says that due to the coding error "anyone with zero karma (but only exactly zero karma)" was able to launch the missiles, which to me seems to imply that users with more than zero karma could not launch them.

mkualquiera avatar
mkualquiera
predicted NO at 57%

@ev Again, I don't think that's correct. The site went down at exactly 6:01 UCT, which to me is a very strong signal that someone with less than 2100 karma was waiting eagerly to launch the missile, and did so. In fact, I personally know one such person (unfortunately they're asleep right now).

Furthermore, I have an account with 0 karma and I was personally able to verify that I was not able to launch the missile.

mkualquiera avatar
mkualquiera
predicted NO at 57%

@NotMyPresident Fuck, okay. I guess I'll take the L

NotMyPresident avatar
#notmypresident
bought Ṁ5 of YES

@mkualquiera No it didn't. It was already down at 5:55.

DavidChee avatar

Well the site WAS taken down with someone pressing the red button. But apparently it was due to a coding error allowing 0 karma users to press it and the site went back up.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
predicted YES at 38%

@DavidChee That should still resolve the market. This is a risk they are taking by deliberately adding a security vulnerability to the site.

Multicore avatar

@DavidChee I will rule that the false alarm did not count for the purposes of this market.

philh avatar
Phil Hazelden
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Multicore Another confusion here is that the code wasn't posted until 4:05am UTC, an hour after the intended start time (which was 3AM UTC). But it looks like the button itself was displayed at 3AM UTC? (It's currently 12:30 BST and the karma threshold was 1500. So it would have been 1500 starting at 12:00 BST, and 2300 starting at 04:00 BST, which was 03:00 UTC.)

Sinclair avatar

@Multicore looks like there's a post on lw disagreeing with this ruling. I personally can see it either way.

jack avatar
Jack
predicted NO at 79%

@Multicore Have you considered N/A resolution? I think in cases where one thinks the spirit of the question and the text of the question would lead to a different answer, N/A is probably best.

jack avatar
Jack
predicted NO at 79%

I think there's reasonable disagreement about the spirit of the question, but the letter of the question is very clear.

DavidChee avatar

@Multicore Just to personally weigh in I lean slightly more towards resolving to 10% (or wtv it was when it went down even if because of a bug). As what occurred exactly matches the resolution criteria is described as even if it was not what was intended.

But I also think resolving N/A is very reasonable as an unexpected variable was introduced which causes the resolution description to no longer align with what was clearly the intention of the market.

The decision is ultimately yours though. Good luck making it haha

Yev avatar
Yev
bought Ṁ50 of NO

It's more likely to go down when americans are awake.

jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ100 of NO

There's at least one high-karma person who claims ~50% chance of pressing the red button at strictly less than 25% of the way through the day. And that's just one where the discussion happened to make its way into the below Manifold market. There are probably multiple other similar people who kept their thinking private.

mkualquiera avatar
Multicore avatar

Added more liquidity