Based on this post:
Separate markets for each of the three clauses, plus one for all three of them being true.
Operationalizations:
"Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems": Minimal problems is somewhat subjective, but I'll interpret it as meaning there's nothing big and glaring that's reported right away.
"NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025": Resolves when the mission flies, not when the contract is awarded. "with cargo" = no crew, more stuff in it than there was on the previous uncrewed demo.
"Starliner-1": The next crewed Starliner flight, whether it uses the Starliner-1 designation or not. An uncrewed mission named Starliner-1 would be against the spirit of the prediction and would not count.
"In the next month": September 9, 11:59 PM Eastern
"In 2025", "In 2026": After January 1 12:00 AM and before December 31, 11:59 PM Eastern of the respective year
1,000
3.00It had a thruster problem but landed successfully. I'd say that counts within the realm of "minimal".
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2024/09/07/starliner-lands-in-new-mexico/
Starliner return estimated for September 6 allegedly - cutting it pretty close for this market!