Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/

SpaceX has caught a massive rocket. So what’s next?

As remarkable as SpaceX’s Starship rocket catch was, it represents but a single step on a long path to the Moon for NASA, and on to Mars.

I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.

All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation. Too early = NO.

Added clarifications:

Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode. I.e. at least as successful as the SN10 landing from the suborbital campaign.

• Update 2025-25-01 (PST): - Loiter near the Moon: The Starship vehicle must demonstrate the ability to loiter near the Moon for at least a day. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-25-01 (PST): - Loiter near the Moon:

  • Demonstrate the ability to loiter near the Moon for at least 24+ hours between launch and the last engine firing of the mission. (AI summary of creator comment)