Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
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Premium
9
Ṁ12k
2029
60%
In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025
60%
Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025
50%
Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026
47%
Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027
41%
Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026
26%
Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028
Resolved
YES
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/

I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.

All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation. Too early = NO.

Added clarifications:

Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode. I.e. at least as successful as the SN10 landing from the suborbital campaign.

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In space relight planned for the next flight, as soon as a couple weeks from now.

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-6

bought Ṁ450 YES

@Multicore the relight was successful, this answer can resolve now.

Edit: Nvm, I'm dumb

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