Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
30
1kṀ1896
2050
27%
chance

Market context
AI
Anthropic
AI risk
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
41% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?
58% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?
21% chance
Anthropic 'falls behind' by July 2026?
9% chance
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
13% chance
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
21% chance
Will Anthropic IPO before 2030?
80% chance
Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030?
67% chance
Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?
48% chance
Will Anthropic cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
3% chance
Sort by:
sold Ṁ55 NO

selling my shares as it seems likely they will never pause - but the criteria is a bit vague.

bought Ṁ10 NO

oh this is another one of those markets that can't ever resolve NO. pointless. I'll just take my -M1 loss then and forget about it

@Pykess Changed question to 2035

Rana G soldṀ10NO

Does it have to be unilateral or can they be forced by regulator?

Will this resolve NO if we reach the close date without Anthropic having paused?

People are also trading

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
41% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?
58% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?
21% chance
Anthropic 'falls behind' by July 2026?
9% chance
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
13% chance
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
21% chance
Will Anthropic IPO before 2030?
80% chance
Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030?
67% chance
Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?
48% chance
Will Anthropic cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
3% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy