Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
36
1kṀ36812035
13%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
For the purpose of this question:
A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025?
5% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
7% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
7% chance
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
14% chance
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
80% chance
If humanity goes extinct by 2030, will AI unwipe out humanity by 2040?
34% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
3% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
33% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
10% chance
Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
82% chance