Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
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1kṀ36812035
13%
chance
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Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
For the purpose of this question:
A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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