Will Starship launch on its 2nd attempt?
Basic
23
Ṁ3482
resolved Apr 20
Resolved
YES

If Starship launches on an earlier attempt, this market resolves N/A.

If SpaceX puts up a livestream and then scrubs for technical reasons, this market resolves No.

If it can't launch due to weather or range violations, then it doesn't count as an attempt.

If the hold down clamps release, this market resolves Yes.

If the engines ignite but the hold down clamps don't release, this resolves No.

SpaceX is allowed to pause the countdown or recycle before ignition; as long as their livestream keeps going I still count that as a single attempt.

(Let me know if you can think of more corner cases, and if these conditions make sense!)

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-first-a

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-2nd-att

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-3rd-att

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-4th-att

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-5th-att

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
predictedYES

Add all these markets to the spacex group?

predictedNO
Comment hidden
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules