Will Starship launch on its 5th attempt?
Spaceโ€ขSpacex
7
24
แน€150
resolved Apr 20
Resolved
N/A

If Starship launches on an earlier attempt, this market resolves N/A.

If SpaceX puts up a livestream and then scrubs for technical reasons, this market resolves No.

If it can't launch due to weather or range violations, then it doesn't count as an attempt.

If the hold down clamps release, this market resolves Yes.

If the engines ignite but the hold down clamps don't release, this resolves No.

SpaceX is allowed to pause the countdown or recycle before ignition; as long as their livestream keeps going I still count that as a single attempt.

(Let me know if you can think of more corner cases, and if these conditions make sense!)

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-first-a

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-2nd-att

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-3rd-att

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-4th-att

/Mqrius/will-starship-launch-on-its-5th-att

Get แน€200 play money