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Will Kuiper Project launch 1618 satellites by the end of July 2026?
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Ṁ110Ṁ1.3k
resolved Jul 26
Resolved
NO

Amazon needs to launch half of their constellation (1618 satellites) by the end of July 2026 to comply with the FCC permit. Will they succeed?

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Amazon has launched 398 satellites, of which 394 are still in orbit.

They received an extension on the deadline to July 2027, though personally I'm skeptical they'll achieve even that. For the delays, they've received a penalty where they lose some of their priority spectrum restrictions/protections.

Extension market:

First 27 production sats launched just now on an Atlas V. These are the first sats since the two 2023 test sats.

They originally planned to launch on an ABL rocket, but ABL got delayed when their first rocket crashed. Then they switched to Vulcan, but now Vulcan is delayed too. So they switched the first flights to Atlas V, planning to launch the test satellites on September 26 2023, though their website still says TBD.

There's also a shareholders lawsuit going on about Amazon not considering launching the satellites on SpaceX rockets; the argument is that Bezos owns Amazon and Blue Origin, and Blue Origin supplies engines to ULA for Vulcan rockets, and that that's the reason SpaceX isn't considered properly to the detriment of shareholders. We'll see if that goes anywhere.